COMMENTARY | As a political scientist, I am concerned by the results of four of the New Hampshire primary exit poll results as posted by Fox News. They focus on voter satisfaction over particular candidates being chosen to represent the Republicans in the 2012 Election. The results show an open door for a third-party candidate.
The survey questions asked "If (candidate) won the nomination, would you be: Satisfied/Dissatisfied?" I should point out the candidates in question were Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum. Jon Huntsman, who ended up placing third in the New Hampshire Primary, was not included in this exit poll question section.
Romney, who ended up winning the primary, showed the best "Satisfied/Dissatisfied" numbers with 61 percent stating they would be satisfied with him as a candidate and 37 percent stating they would be dissatisfied. Since third-party candidates press to pull dissatisfied voters, the 37 percent of voters is the chunk which would be gone after. Of course, Romney and the Republicans have time to sway this percentage, but will there be time before they are wooed by someone else?
The 37 percent polled should be of major concern to Republicans as it shows how much of an opening a their-party candidate would have. A third-party candidate against President Barack Obama would likely take a significant number away Romney. The best way for the Republicans to defeat President Obama would be to have complete unity in the party.
The Washington Post has published the latest results of a Post-ABC approval rating poll and shows President Obama with a 49/47 approval/disapproval rate. If he were to carry this percentage into November, Republicans would have to have a candidate who could poll above 50 percent to take over the White House. A third-party candidate taking even a small amount from the Republican candidate could ensure President Obama's second term.
The GOP and Romney have a very short time to ensure that the 37 percent is firmly behind the former governor as a candidate. If a third-party candidate is going to enter the race, it would likely be within the next few months. Once a third candidate starts talking, the GOP will have a harder time rounding up the troops and making sure the party is in line.
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